Making predictions is a dangerous business, but as I said at the beginning of the year when I made them, I was going to take the risk and go out on a limb to make them. I guess how I did depends on if you are a fan of baseball or basketball. If I am measured in terms of baseball hitting percentages, I did pretty well. If I am measured in terms of basketball free throw percentages, I would be benched!
With that said, the following is a scorecard of my predictions versus the actual results:
Prediction: The nearshoring boom will continue to accelerate and Mexico will receive a record amount of foreign direct investment
Result: CORRECT!
Mexico is on track to receive a record amount of foreign direct investment, but the rate did not grow as fast as many hoped and the vast majority of the investment was not new money coming into the country but rather reinvestment. Definitely something to keep an eye on in 2025. Read more below:
Did Mexico really ‘miss the nearshoring boom’? A perspective from our CEO
Prediction: One, if not two, Chinese auto companies will announce massive plant investments in Mexico.
Result: INCORRECT!
Multiple large Chinese companies, including BYD and others, announced that announcements of plants would be coming, but they have not yet happened. Trump’s recent presidential victory seems likely to have stalled these plans indefinitely.
Prediction: Increased discussion and tension will arise among USMCA partners (United States, Canada, Mexico) over the rapidly increasing Chinese investment and imports into Mexico.
Result: CORRECT!
Both Canada and the United States have been piling on the threats to Mexico over Chinese investments and imports, with several Canadian provincial ministers even going so far as to say that the USMCA should be updated and Mexico should be cut out of the agreement. To try to bring some sanity and facts to the discussion, Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard and President Sheinbaum both presented actual data on Chinese investment and imports into Mexico to try to lower tensions.
Prediction: The NBA will confirm that an expansion team will come to Mexico City.
The result: INCORRECT!
The NBA has not yet confirmed a team in Mexico City, but has continued to express interest in the possibility. It will likely happen at some point, but will take time to come to fruition.
Prediction: Claudia Sheinbaum will win the presidential election in a landslide.
The result: CORRECT!
Dr. Sheinbaum did in fact win in a landslide.
Claudia Sheinbaum is elected the first female president of Mexico
Prediction: The Mexican peso will not move significantly in reaction to the election results (as it often does).
The result: INCORRECT!
The peso has weakened by nearly 20% since the election and is now back where it was several years ago. Compared to previous elections, this was actually not a large move (especially given the huge appreciation of the peso in the year leading up to the election), but the move was significant nonetheless.
Prediction: The Maya Train project will be more positively viewed by the end of the year and increasingly be recognized as a strategically important investment for the region.
Result: I think it is still too early to tell on this one.
The entire train network was just completed a few weeks ago, and emotions are still high on both sides. 2025 will be a key year to answer this question.
Prediction: The Tulum airport will receive a surprisingly high number of new flights and become a major flight destination.
The result: CORRECT!
Tulum’s airport just hit its one-year anniversary with more traffic than predicted, and new direct flights to both Germany and Colombia were recently announced.
Coatzacoalcos-Palenque stretch of Interoceanic Train to start operations
Prediction: The Interoceanic Train crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec will get increased interest and attention due to continued problems with the Panama Canal.
The result: This is another one that seems to be in the “too early to tell” category.
Trump’s recent suggestion that the U.S. take over the Panama Canal again could help or hurt Mexico’s cause…
Prediction: Mexico will become an increasingly important topic in the upcoming U.S. elections. Issues like immigration, fentanyl and drug cartels will cause some candidates to threaten significant actions against the country.
The result: CORRECT!
A significant part of Trump’s winning message was focused on what he would do on immigration, drug cartels and migrants from Mexico.
Prediction: Despite the campaign rhetoric, Mexico will increase its lead and share as the largest trading partner of the United States.
The result: CORRECT!
Mexico increased its exports to the U.S. and increased its share as the largest trading partner to now nearly 16% — ahead of Canada and with China now in third place.
Prediction: Tesla will accelerate its plant investment in Monterrey.
The result: INCORRECT!
Tesla, blaming an uncertain electric vehicle market and the threat of tariffs, put an indefinite pause on the project to the dismay of many in the region.
Prediction: The number of U.S. and Canadian citizens moving to Mexico will continue to accelerate.
The result: Too early to tell.
I have not yet seen actual figures, but all anecdotal evidence I see and hear tells me that the numbers continue to increase.
Prediction: A record number of international tourists will come to Mexico.
The result: CORRECT!
Mexico has seen record numbers of international tourists and tourist spending this year.
International tourism spending up 5% through October, surpassing US $24 billion
Prediction: The Bank of Mexico will finally begin to lower interest rates in the first quarter of the year, which should weaken the peso gradually.
The result: CORRECT!
Rates were cut in March and for a total of five times this year, putting the current rate at 10%. The peso has weakened (albeit not gradually).
Prediction: The Mexican peso will end the year above 18 to the US dollar.
The result: CORRECT!
Although it seems like a no-brainer prediction now, let’s remember that it was at 16.3 not too long ago. The current rate is near 20.
Prediction: Mexico will end 2024 as the 10th largest economy in the world (moving up 2 places from 2023 and 4 places from 2022).
The result: Too early to tell, but I am confident in giving myself an INCORRECT on this one due to Mexico’s low GDP growth this year.
The economy underperformed its potential growth rate yet again, and next year’s forecasts are being revised downward by just about everyone.
So in summary, I had 9 correct predictions, 5 incorrect and 3 that are still too early to tell. Given that 2024 had increased volatility due to being an election year in the United States and Canada, I think I did okay, but with definite room for improvement.
How did 2024 play out for Mexico versus your expectations? What predictions did you make that were correct or incorrect?
Please share your thoughts and comments in the comments section and stay tuned for my Mexico Predictions for 2025 in my first column of the new year.
Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.
